PMP Process – Risk Management – Input, Tools an Outputs

• Risk identification, management and response strategy impacts every area of the project management life cycle
• Everyone is responsible for identifying risks
• Risk has one or more causes and has one or more impacts
• Risk = uncertainty; risk management: increase the probability of project success by minimizing/eliminating negative risks (threats) and increasing positive events (opportunities)
• Risk attitudes (EEF): risk appetite (willingness to take risks for rewards), tolerance for risk (risk tolerant or risk averse), risk threshold (level beyond which the org refuses to tolerate risks and may change its response)
• Pure (insurable) risk vs business risk (can be +ve or -ve)
• Known risks that cannot be dealt with proactively (active acceptance) should be assigned a contingency reserve or if the known risks cannot be analyzed, just wait for its happening and implement workaround (passive acceptance)

Knowledge Area	Process	Input	Tools	Output
Risk Management	Plan Risk Management	Project Management Plan	Analytical Techniques	Risk Management Plan
		Project Charter
		Stakeholder Register	Expert Judgment
		Enterprise Environment Factors
		Organization Process Assets	Meetings
	Identify Risks	Risk Management Plan	Documentation Reviews	Risk Register
		Cost Management Plan
		Schedule Management Plan	Information Gathering Techniques
		Quality Management Plan
		HR Management Plan	Checklist Analysis
		Scope Baseline
		Activity Cost Estimates	Assumptions Analysis
		Activity Duration Estimates
		Stakeholder Register	Diagramming Techniques
		Project Documents	SWOT Analysis
		Procurement Documents
		Enterprise Environment Factors	Expert Judgment
		Organization Process Assets
	Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis	Risk Management Plan	Risk Probability and Impact Assessment	Project Documents Updates
		Scope Statement	Probability and Impact Matrix
		Risk Register	Risk Data Quality Assessment
		Enterprise Environment Factors	Risk Categorization
		Organization Process Assets	Risk Urgency Assessment
			Expert Judgement
	Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis	Risk Management Plan	Data Gathering and Representation Techniques	Project Documents Updates
		Cost Management Plan
		Schedule Management Plan	Quantitative Risk
		Risk Register
		Enterprise Environment Factors	Analysis and Modeling Techniques
		Organization Process Assets	Expert Judgment
	Plan Risk Responses	Risk Management Plan	Strategies for Negative Risk (Threats)	PM Plan Updates
			Strategies for Positive Risk (Opportunities)
		Risk Register	Contingent Response Strategies	Project Documents Updates
			Expert Judgment
	Control Risks	PM Plan	RiskReassessment	Work Performance Info
			Risk Audits	Change Requests
		Risk Register	Variance and Trend Analysis	PM Plan Update
		Work Performance Data	Technical Performance Measurement	Project Document Updates
		Work PerformanceReports	Reserve Analysis Meetings	OPA Updates

Plan Risk Management

• define and provide resources and time to perform risk management, including: methodology, roles and responsibilities, budget, timing (when and how often), risk categories (e.g. RBS), definitions, stakeholder tolerances (a EEF), reporting and tracking
• performed at project initiation and early in the Planning process
• failure to address risks early on can ultimately be more costly
• analytical techniques include stakeholder risk profile analysis, strategic risk scoring sheets
• a risk breakdown structure (RBS) (included in the PM Plan) – risks grouped by categories and occurring areas
• key risk categories: scope creep, inherent schedule flaws, employee turnover, specification breakdown (conflicts in deliverable specifications), poor productivity

Identify Risks

• determine all risks affecting the project
• information-gathering techniques: brainstorming, delphi technique [a panel of independent experts, maintain anonymity, use questionnaire, encourage open critique],root cause analysis [performed after an event to gain understanding to prevent similar events from occurring], expert interviewing, SWOT analysis
• root cause analysis: safety-based (prevent accidents), production-based, process-based (include business process), failure-based, systems-based (all above)
• root cause analysis tools: FMEA, Pareto Analysis, Bayesian Inference (conditional probability), Ishikawa Diagrams, Kepner-Tregoe
• Monte Carlo analysis can identify points of schedule risks
• Influence Diagram – graphical representations of situations showing causal influences, time ordering of events, and other relationships among variables and outcomes.
• Risk Register (typically not including the risk reserve)
• The Risk Register may include a risk statement
• any risk with a probability of >70% is an issue (to be dealt with proactively and recorded in the issue log)

Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

• prioritizing risks for further analysis/action and identify high priority risks
• need to identify bias and correct it (e.g. risk attitude of the stakeholders)
• qualitative risk assessment matrix (format described in the Risk Management Plan)
• update to risk register and other related documents
• risk register update are output of Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis, Perform Quantitative Analysis, Plan Risk Responses and Monitor & Control Risks
• the scope baseline is used to understand whether the project is a recurrent type or a state-of-the-art type (more risks)
• risks requiring near-term responses are more urgent to address

Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

• the cost, schedule and risk management plan contains guidelines on establishing and managing risks
• involves mathematical modeling for forecasts and trend analysis
• data gathering and representation techniques: interviewing, probability distributions [normal distribution (bell shaped curve)],
• sensitivity analysis (using the tornado diagram as presentation) for determining the risks that have the most impact on the project
• Failure Modes Effects Analysis (FMEA)
• FMEA for manufactured product or where risk may be undetectable, Risk Priority Number (RPN) = severity (1-10) x occurrence ([0.07%] 1-10 [20%]) X detectability (1-10 [undetectable]), also a non-proprietary approach for risk management
• Expected Value / Expected Monetary Value (EMV), probability x impact (cost/effort lost), opportunities (+ve values), threats (-ve values)
• Monte Carlo Analysis – by running simulations many times over in order to calculate those same probabilities heuristically just like actually playing and recording your results in a real casino situation, ‘S’ curve (cumulative distribution) will result, may use PERT/triangular distribution to model data, may use thousands of data points (a random variable), for budget/schedule analysis
• Decision Tree Analysis – another form of EMV, branching: decision squares (decision branch – options), circles (uncertainty branch – possible outcomes)

Plan Risk Responses

• plan response to enhance opportunities and reduce threats
• each risk is owned by a responsible person
• the watch list is the list of low priority risks items in the risk register
• a fallback plan will be used if 1) risk response not effective, 2) accepted risk occurs
• risk strategies: 1) prevent risk, 2) response to risk, 3) reduce risk, 4) promote opportunities, 5) fallback if risk response fails
• negative risk strategies: eliminate/avoid (not to use, extend the schedule), transfer (outsource, warranty, insurance), mitigate (reduce the risk by more testing/precautionary actions/redundancy), accept (passive – do nothing or active – contingency)
• positive risk strategies: exploit (ensure opportunity by using internal resources e.g. reduce cost/use of top talents/new tech), share (contractor with specialized skills, joint venture), enhance (increase likelihood / impact e.g. fast-tracking, add resources etc.), accept
• passive risk acceptance to be dealt with when the risk occurs
• Contingency Plan (contingent response strategies) (plan A) are developed for specific risk (when you have accepted a risk) with certain triggers vs Fallback Plan (plan B)
• Residual Risks – risks remains after the risk response strategy was implemented, may be identified in the planning process (may subject to contingency/fallback planning) They don’t need any further analysis because you have already planned the most complete response strategy you know in dealing with the risk that came before them.
• Secondary Risks –  risk arises when the risk response strategy was implemented
• Contingency Reserve: known unknowns (determined risk), part of cost baseline
• Management Reserve: unknown unknowns (discovery risk), part of project budget
• The Risk Register is now completed with: risks and descriptions, triggers, response strategy, persons responsible, results from qualitative and quantitative analysis, residual and secondary risks, contingency and fallback, risk budget/time

Control Risks

• when the above risk planning processes have been performed with due diligence, the project is said to have a low risk profile
• to check if assumptions are still valid, procedures are being followed and any deviance
• to identify new risks and evaluate effectiveness of risk response plan
• any need to adjust contingency and management reserves
• to re-assess the individual risk response strategies to see if they are effective
• risk audits deal with effectiveness of risk response and the risk management process
• risk audits are usually performed by experts outside project team for the whole risk management process
• reserve analysis and fund for contingencies apply only to the specific risks on the project for which they were set aside
• workaround: when no contingency plan exists, executed on-the-fly to addressunplanned events – still need to pass through normal change control if change requests are needed

Determine the workaround is performed in control risks

PMP Process – Project Communication Management – Input, Tools an Outputs

• Assure the timely collection, generation, distribution, storage, retrieval and ultimate disposition of project information
• Very important to the ultimate success of the project
• Message transmission: 7% in word, 38% in vocal pitch, 55% in body language (Albert Mehrabian)
• Don’t wait to communication good/bad news
• The sender has the responsibility to ensure the receiver correctly understand the message
• If part of the project is procured, more formal written communication will be expected

Knowledge Area	Process	Input	Tools	Output
Project Communication Management	Plan Communications Management	PM Plan	Communications Requirements Analysis	Communications Management Plan
		Stakeholder Register	Communications Technology
		Enterprise Environment Factors	Communication Models	Project Document Updates
		Organization Process Assets	Communication Methods
			Meetings
	Manage Communications	Communications Management Plan	Communications Technology	Project Communications
			Communication Models	PM Plan Updates
		Work Performance Reports	Communication Methods	Project Document Updates
		Enterprise Environment Factors	Information Management System	OPA Updates
		Organization Process Assets	Performance Reporting
	Control Communications	PM Plan	Information Management System	Change Requests
		Project Communications		Work Performance Info
		Issue Log	Expert Judgment	PM Plan Updates
		Work Performance Data		Project Documents Updates
		Organization Process Assets	Meetings	OPA Updates

Plan Communications Management

• Identify the needs for stakeholder communication
• The who, what, when (frequency), why, where and how of communications needs and the persons responsible
• Time and budget for the resources, escalation path, flow charts, constraints, guideline and templates
• Communication Methods

o    Interactive (multidirectional communication, most effective)

o    Push (active, messages sent without validation of receipt)

o    Pull (passive, access directly by stakeholders)

• Low context vs high context (japan, more polite)
• May need to limit who can communicate with whom and who will receive what information
• (Shannon-Weaver model)Sender-Receiver Model: i) encoded idea, ii) message and feedback, iii) medium, iv) noise level, v) the decoded idea. The sender to ensure info is clear, complete and the recipient correct understands. The recipient to ensure complete message is received (to acknowledge) and provide feedback/response.
• Effective Listening: feedback, active listening and paralingual (voice expression, nonverbal elements)
• Communication channels: N (N -1) / 2      // N is the number of team members
• Meetings should facilitate problem solving
• PM spends 90% of their time on COMMUNICATION activities, 50% of the time is spent on communicating with the team
• Efficient communication: only the required messages
• Effective communication: right timing, right format, right medium

Manage Communications

• Create, collect, distribute, store, retrieve and dispose project information according to the Communication Management Plan
• Ensures good communications, noises managed, stakeholders may feedback on how to improve
• Communication Barriers vs Communication Enhancers
• 55% message thru body language, 38% thru paralingual, 7% thru words used
• Types of Communications: Formal Written, Formal Verbal, Information Written, Informal Verbal
• Performance Reporting: status, progress, variance, trend, earned value reports and forecasts, summary of changes, risks and issues
• PM Plan Update to show the latest performance (against Performance Measurement Baseline)
• Feedback from stakeholders are to be stored in OPA

 Control Communications

• To ensure optimal information flow for effective stakeholder expectation management
• Issue log is to document the issues and monitor its resolutions (with person responsible)